Podcasts
05/03/2020
Turkish troops in Tripoli leaves Hafter with no military options in Libya
Renegade Libyan commander Khalifa Hafter has stopped short of taking control of Libya’s capital Tripoli after Turkish troops came to the aid of the country’s besieged UN-backed government, the GNA. Before the Turkish intervention, Hafter’s LNA forces were almost certainly going to claim victory on behalf of the eastern-based government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, France, Greece, and to a certain extent, Russia.
However, Hafter has not shied away from directly targeting Turkish troops and their allied forces, particularly around the Mitiga airport just outside of Tripoli, at times forcing the airport to shut down. The commander, whose forces control most of the country, including some of its most vital oil resources, is also maintaining his stranglehold over the lifeblood of the Libyan economy by blocking oil exports.
His tactics bring about economic deprivation for the whole country, regardless of where people are and which side they support, but ultimately it is a tactic designed to water down the conflict to a matter of manpower alone, in which he would have the advantage. But despite sustaining casualties at the risk of further exacerbating domestic opposition to this already unpopular overseas military deployment, Turkey looks likely to keep its troops in Libya as no one in the international community seems willing to provide the necessary boots on the ground to evict them.
While the UAE provides arms and Russia provides mercenaries to help Hafter advance in the conflict, the final decision of the Berlin summit last month was that it was best for foreign powers not to get directly involved with Libya as it was likely to create a situation where even European allies, namely France and Italy, would start turning against one another in a battle for influence. Even Egypt, which is in desperate need for new pastures to cater for its booming 100 million-strong population, doesn’t see enough return on investment to get involved in Libya directly.
That leaves Hafter and the eastern-based government with no choice but to seek legitimacy through diplomatic means, by lobbying for enough recognition from the international community to one day perhaps sway the UN’s favour. The eastern government got started by sending a delegation to Syria to meet with regime leader Bashar al Assad in Damascus. There, the two sides agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding to establish diplomatic missions and cooperate against “Turkish aggression”.
For the time being, Hafter may have to just consolidate whatever power he has in the county’s east and hold off his offensive on Tripoli. Although the Tripoli-based GNA says it is preparing a counter-attack against Hafter, Turkey is unlikely to seek any further deployment of its troops east of Tripoli. The two Libyan governments will have to agree on some kind of profit-sharing deal to restart its oil exports and continue as normally as possible until one side gives way to the other.
Radio EastMed’s Editor-in-Chief Ertan Karpazli has more.
To listen to the full podcast rounding up all the major events of February 2020 in the Eastern Mediterranean, please visit the following link: https://youtu.be/fXTJli_iW6g
However, Hafter has not shied away from directly targeting Turkish troops and their allied forces, particularly around the Mitiga airport just outside of Tripoli, at times forcing the airport to shut down. The commander, whose forces control most of the country, including some of its most vital oil resources, is also maintaining his stranglehold over the lifeblood of the Libyan economy by blocking oil exports.
His tactics bring about economic deprivation for the whole country, regardless of where people are and which side they support, but ultimately it is a tactic designed to water down the conflict to a matter of manpower alone, in which he would have the advantage. But despite sustaining casualties at the risk of further exacerbating domestic opposition to this already unpopular overseas military deployment, Turkey looks likely to keep its troops in Libya as no one in the international community seems willing to provide the necessary boots on the ground to evict them.
While the UAE provides arms and Russia provides mercenaries to help Hafter advance in the conflict, the final decision of the Berlin summit last month was that it was best for foreign powers not to get directly involved with Libya as it was likely to create a situation where even European allies, namely France and Italy, would start turning against one another in a battle for influence. Even Egypt, which is in desperate need for new pastures to cater for its booming 100 million-strong population, doesn’t see enough return on investment to get involved in Libya directly.
That leaves Hafter and the eastern-based government with no choice but to seek legitimacy through diplomatic means, by lobbying for enough recognition from the international community to one day perhaps sway the UN’s favour. The eastern government got started by sending a delegation to Syria to meet with regime leader Bashar al Assad in Damascus. There, the two sides agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding to establish diplomatic missions and cooperate against “Turkish aggression”.
For the time being, Hafter may have to just consolidate whatever power he has in the county’s east and hold off his offensive on Tripoli. Although the Tripoli-based GNA says it is preparing a counter-attack against Hafter, Turkey is unlikely to seek any further deployment of its troops east of Tripoli. The two Libyan governments will have to agree on some kind of profit-sharing deal to restart its oil exports and continue as normally as possible until one side gives way to the other.
Radio EastMed’s Editor-in-Chief Ertan Karpazli has more.
To listen to the full podcast rounding up all the major events of February 2020 in the Eastern Mediterranean, please visit the following link: https://youtu.be/fXTJli_iW6g
