Podcasts
06/06/2020
Crunch time as Israel prepares to annex Palestinian West Bank
After years of talk from the Israeli side, the time seems to have finally arrived to see if Israel has the courage to actually annex the West Bank. If it does, it will be the biggest grab of Palestinian land since the Six-Day War in 1967. Of course, the West Bank has been under Israeli occupation since then, and illegal Jewish settlers continue to build settlements on the territory, boosting their demographic number and disenfranchising the Palestinian locals. The annexation would merely formalise the status quo of the last 53 years, placing everything between the already annexed East Jerusalem and the western side of the Jordan Valley under Israeli sovereignty, minus a few Palestinian enclaves.
Israel already has the backing of US President Donald Trump to make this move. Trump has already moved the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, officially recognising the contested city as Israel’s capital, and pushing Palestinian aims of having East Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestinian state that much further away. The annexation of the West Bank is also the brainchild of President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their plan offers the Palestinians sovereignty under a two-state solution, with the Palestinian enclaves in the West Bank being connected with the Gaza Strip via a tunnel passing through Israel. The plan however was drawn up without any consultation with the Palestinians, who have on the whole rejected it, saying it defies the 1995 Oslo Accords.
But for some time there were doubts that Netanyahu would be able to implement the plan. He just barely survived an election to remain the prime minister of Israel after reaching an agreement with his election rival Benny Gantz, who is now Israel’s new defence minister. Gantz’s supporters largely opposed the annexation, fearing it could trigger another Palestinian intifada, or uprising. But it seems that Gantz has promised to back the annexation in return for his bloc taking greater control of Israel’s judiciary. Even still, the Israeli prime minister is currently on trial for corruption and bribery, and it is unclear whether Netanyahu will even be able to complete his current term should he be sentenced to time in prison. Nonetheless, Gantz himself has instructed the Israeli military to be on standby for the annexation, as its imminent announcement is expected to spark clashes.
World reaction to the plan has been mixed. Some Arab countries have advised the Palestinians to consider the proposals while at the same time urging Israel to hold off any unilateral moves. Turkey, meanwhile, has completely rejected the plan. Even the EU has desperately appealed to Israel to not go ahead with it. A number of EU countries actually recognise the state of Palestine, so the annexation could cause issues within the EU bloc. But none has been more outspoken than Jordan, a relatively quiet country to the east of Israel. Jordan’s King Abdullah warned of a “massive conflict” in the Middle East should the annexation go ahead, stopping short of saying whether the move would nullify Jordan’s own peace treaty with Israel.
On the whole, Jordan has done well to maintain a degree of stability in a highly volatile region, but thanks to its geography, it is always doomed to feel the ramifications of any nearby escalation. It is naturally concerned the collapse of the Palestinian Authority will lead to lawlessness and extremism among the Palestinians in the West Bank, and any conflict could send waves of refugees into Jordan, placing a further strain on its economy. Keep in mind the majority of people living in Jordan are already refugees from Palestine.
But for Israel, there is a notion of annexation happening now or never. Israel’s main opponent in the region since the 1970s has been Iran. For decades, Iran has been working its way to the Mediterranean by setting up allied regimes, proxies and militia groups, mainly recruited from Shia Muslim minorities in Syria and Lebanon. The Iranians helped establish Hezbollah, a Shia-dominated party in Lebanon with its own militia army, which effectively fought against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in the past. Hezbollah has remained a pain in the neck for Israel ever since. The group has grown into more of a threat since entering the Syrian civil war on behalf of the Alawite-led regime, headed by Bashar al Assad. Throughout the war, Hezbollah has often taunted Israel near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
However, since the assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January, Iran and its proxies have been on the backfoot in the region, with some reports suggesting Iranian military personnel were preparing to pull out of Syria. Iran’s retreat would also spell bad news for some Iranian-backed Palestinian militias such as Islamic Jihad, and while the Turkish and Qatari-backed Hamas government in Gaza won’t stand for the annexation, without Iranian support it is unlikely to mobilise any kind of resistance aginst Israel. Unlike Iran, Turkey has diplomatic ties with Israel, albeit strained, and according to reports earlier this year, the Israeli government has held secret contacts with Qatar regarding maintaining stability in Gaza. Turkey will also particularly be pleased to see Iranian fighters withdraw from Syria and the collapse of the Assad regime, for which Russia is rumoured to be preparing a suitable replacement.
Nonetheless, Israel is highly unlikely to get any support beyond the US, and perhaps India, for its annexation of the West Bank. The international community will condemn it and deem it illegal. But that didn’t stop Israel from annexing East Jerusalem in the past, and the sad reality for Palestinians is that it probably won’t stop Israel from doing it again. Turkey will push for the Palestinian agenda on the world stage, but will not go to war over it. The Arab world will outwardly disagree with it, but inwardly be relieved at Israel’s success against Iran. Voices within the EU will criticise the move, but they will be challenged by equally loud voices who approve of it.
The fact is that Israel has never been interested in a two-state solution that leaves all of the West Bank under Palestinian control. Such a solution could never satisfy Israel’s security demand. Israel needs the Jordan Valley to serve as a natural border between itself and the Arab world. With its current borders, not including the territories under its illegal occupation, Israel is extremely vulnerable. Seventy-two years since its establishment, the power of the so-called Jewish State still doesn’t even fill its own borders. Let’s not forget that some 20 percent of Israeli citizens are actually Palestinians with deep loyalties to Palestine. Even the Jews in Israel, despite being empowered by the state, are within themselves deeply divided along sectarian and political lines. Therefore, Israel has no choice but to pursue an aggressive, maximalist policy regarding its state security. Yes, there will be skirmishes, but nothing more. Annexation will become the new normal, but at least after that, any dialogue between the Israelis and Palestinians is more likely to be based on openness and honesty, not trickery.
Radio EastMed’s Editor-in-Chief Ertan Karpazli has more.
To listen to the full podcast rounding up all the major events of May 2020 in the Eastern Mediterranean, please visit the following link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dWaq9aGAdx4&t=3s
Israel already has the backing of US President Donald Trump to make this move. Trump has already moved the US Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, officially recognising the contested city as Israel’s capital, and pushing Palestinian aims of having East Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestinian state that much further away. The annexation of the West Bank is also the brainchild of President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Their plan offers the Palestinians sovereignty under a two-state solution, with the Palestinian enclaves in the West Bank being connected with the Gaza Strip via a tunnel passing through Israel. The plan however was drawn up without any consultation with the Palestinians, who have on the whole rejected it, saying it defies the 1995 Oslo Accords.
But for some time there were doubts that Netanyahu would be able to implement the plan. He just barely survived an election to remain the prime minister of Israel after reaching an agreement with his election rival Benny Gantz, who is now Israel’s new defence minister. Gantz’s supporters largely opposed the annexation, fearing it could trigger another Palestinian intifada, or uprising. But it seems that Gantz has promised to back the annexation in return for his bloc taking greater control of Israel’s judiciary. Even still, the Israeli prime minister is currently on trial for corruption and bribery, and it is unclear whether Netanyahu will even be able to complete his current term should he be sentenced to time in prison. Nonetheless, Gantz himself has instructed the Israeli military to be on standby for the annexation, as its imminent announcement is expected to spark clashes.
World reaction to the plan has been mixed. Some Arab countries have advised the Palestinians to consider the proposals while at the same time urging Israel to hold off any unilateral moves. Turkey, meanwhile, has completely rejected the plan. Even the EU has desperately appealed to Israel to not go ahead with it. A number of EU countries actually recognise the state of Palestine, so the annexation could cause issues within the EU bloc. But none has been more outspoken than Jordan, a relatively quiet country to the east of Israel. Jordan’s King Abdullah warned of a “massive conflict” in the Middle East should the annexation go ahead, stopping short of saying whether the move would nullify Jordan’s own peace treaty with Israel.
On the whole, Jordan has done well to maintain a degree of stability in a highly volatile region, but thanks to its geography, it is always doomed to feel the ramifications of any nearby escalation. It is naturally concerned the collapse of the Palestinian Authority will lead to lawlessness and extremism among the Palestinians in the West Bank, and any conflict could send waves of refugees into Jordan, placing a further strain on its economy. Keep in mind the majority of people living in Jordan are already refugees from Palestine.
But for Israel, there is a notion of annexation happening now or never. Israel’s main opponent in the region since the 1970s has been Iran. For decades, Iran has been working its way to the Mediterranean by setting up allied regimes, proxies and militia groups, mainly recruited from Shia Muslim minorities in Syria and Lebanon. The Iranians helped establish Hezbollah, a Shia-dominated party in Lebanon with its own militia army, which effectively fought against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon in the past. Hezbollah has remained a pain in the neck for Israel ever since. The group has grown into more of a threat since entering the Syrian civil war on behalf of the Alawite-led regime, headed by Bashar al Assad. Throughout the war, Hezbollah has often taunted Israel near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
However, since the assassination of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in January, Iran and its proxies have been on the backfoot in the region, with some reports suggesting Iranian military personnel were preparing to pull out of Syria. Iran’s retreat would also spell bad news for some Iranian-backed Palestinian militias such as Islamic Jihad, and while the Turkish and Qatari-backed Hamas government in Gaza won’t stand for the annexation, without Iranian support it is unlikely to mobilise any kind of resistance aginst Israel. Unlike Iran, Turkey has diplomatic ties with Israel, albeit strained, and according to reports earlier this year, the Israeli government has held secret contacts with Qatar regarding maintaining stability in Gaza. Turkey will also particularly be pleased to see Iranian fighters withdraw from Syria and the collapse of the Assad regime, for which Russia is rumoured to be preparing a suitable replacement.
Nonetheless, Israel is highly unlikely to get any support beyond the US, and perhaps India, for its annexation of the West Bank. The international community will condemn it and deem it illegal. But that didn’t stop Israel from annexing East Jerusalem in the past, and the sad reality for Palestinians is that it probably won’t stop Israel from doing it again. Turkey will push for the Palestinian agenda on the world stage, but will not go to war over it. The Arab world will outwardly disagree with it, but inwardly be relieved at Israel’s success against Iran. Voices within the EU will criticise the move, but they will be challenged by equally loud voices who approve of it.
The fact is that Israel has never been interested in a two-state solution that leaves all of the West Bank under Palestinian control. Such a solution could never satisfy Israel’s security demand. Israel needs the Jordan Valley to serve as a natural border between itself and the Arab world. With its current borders, not including the territories under its illegal occupation, Israel is extremely vulnerable. Seventy-two years since its establishment, the power of the so-called Jewish State still doesn’t even fill its own borders. Let’s not forget that some 20 percent of Israeli citizens are actually Palestinians with deep loyalties to Palestine. Even the Jews in Israel, despite being empowered by the state, are within themselves deeply divided along sectarian and political lines. Therefore, Israel has no choice but to pursue an aggressive, maximalist policy regarding its state security. Yes, there will be skirmishes, but nothing more. Annexation will become the new normal, but at least after that, any dialogue between the Israelis and Palestinians is more likely to be based on openness and honesty, not trickery.
Radio EastMed’s Editor-in-Chief Ertan Karpazli has more.
To listen to the full podcast rounding up all the major events of May 2020 in the Eastern Mediterranean, please visit the following link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dWaq9aGAdx4&t=3s
